Venezuela’s exports of crude and fuel increased in February to their highest level since November, according to vessel monitoring data. This rise occurred as the U.S. prepared to terminate a key license that allows oil major Chevron to operate and ship crude from the country. Venezuela’s oil output and exports have grown since Chevron was granted the license in late 2022, providing a reliable source of revenue to President Nicolas Maduro’s administration. In January, Chevron shipped more than 30% of Venezuela’s total exports to the U.S.

On Tuesday, the U.S. Treasury Department ordered the wind-down of Chevron’s activities in Venezuela within the next 30 days, following President Trump’s accusation that Maduro had not made progress on electoral reforms and migrant returns. Venezuela’s state energy company PDVSA and its joint venture partners exported an average of 934,465 barrels per day (bpd) of crude and fuel last month. China remained the largest market for Venezuela’s oil, receiving approximately 503,000 bpd. The U.S. was the second-largest receiver with 239,000 bpd, followed by Europe with 69,200 bpd and India with 68,000 bpd.

Chevron’s exports to the U.S. and other destinations from its joint ventures fell to 252,000 bpd in February from 294,000 bpd the previous month. Venezuela’s political ally Cuba, which is experiencing a severe energy crisis, received about 42,000 bpd of crude and fuel. Venezuela also exported 315,000 metric tons of oil byproducts and petrochemicals, including methanol and urea, a decline from the 360,000 tons shipped in January.

The country imported 86,000 bpd of fuel through swaps with PDVSA’s partners, down from 132,000 bpd in January. Since Washington first imposed oil sanctions on Venezuela in 2019, PDVSA has relied on little-known intermediaries that buy its oil at price discounts and provide it to China. These intermediaries also charge PDVSA costly fees for freight, ship-to-ship transfers, and discharge.

With no incentives to continue delivering cargoes to Chevron under the new license’s terms, which are yet to be detailed by the U.S. Treasury, PDVSA is expected to send more oil to China through those intermediaries in the coming months, according to analysts. U.S. refiners of heavy crude, particularly in the Gulf of Mexico, are expected to feel the impact of the license withdrawal, which coincides with Trump imposing tariffs on Canada and Mexico, the top suppliers of oil to the U.S.