Oil prices are expected to decline this year, according to the director of North Dakota’s state oil regulator, due to uncertainty surrounding U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs on Canada and Mexico. North Dakota, the third-largest oil-producing state in the U.S., has seen U.S. crude futures trading below $70 a barrel for the past three weeks, influenced by investor concerns over potential trade tariffs.

“I expect a softer oil price environment than in 2024,” said Nathan Anderson, director of the North Dakota Department Of Mineral Resources. “The Trump administration’s actions with tariffs and sanctions, along with current market movements, suggest lower oil prices. If prices drop significantly, the federal government might increase input into the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, which could set a floor for oil prices.”

In 2022, the Biden administration sold 180 million barrels of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to lower gasoline prices following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Currently, North Dakota has 12 active frac crews, and oil production fell by 20,000 barrels per day to 1.172 million bpd in January, attributed to cold weather. The rig count and completion activity in 2025 have remained steady, with Bakken oil pricing at an 80 cent per barrel discount to West Texas Intermediate.